Slots Promo EV

Is that casino offer actually worth it? Enter the game RTPs and the bonus rules — see the real expected value of staking to claim each reward, house edge and wagering included.

Staking game RTP the game you wager the qualifying stake on

Reward game RTP where free bets play

Wagering

Promo tiers stake → reward. Add a row per offer.

The qualifying stake only costs you the house edge — not the whole stake — because you get most of it back in play. That's why a low-house-edge staking game changes everything.

Best promo

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— session RTP —

—reward value —stake cost

Every tier, ranked by expected value

All tiers combined

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Add a promo tier with a stake and a reward to see whether it's worth claiming.

Pure expected-value maths — nothing is hidden and no data leaves your browser.

Assumes fair, independent RTP and that qualifying stakes are ordinary turnover. Real offers carry min-odds, game-weighting and max-win terms. A decision aid, not gambling advice — the house still keeps its edge.

How the EV is worked out

Every figure is an expectation — the average outcome if you ran the promo many times. One session will land above or below it.

The qualifying stake

Wagering £S on a game with RTP r_s doesn't cost you £S — you get £S × r_s back on average. So the real cost is only the house edge:

stake cost = S × (1 − r_s)

At 96% RTP, a £10 stake costs an expected 40p, not £10.

The reward

Cash is withdrawable, so it's worth its face value. A free bet (bonus funds, stake not returned) must be played through — and every pass through the reward game shrinks it by that game's RTP:

cash value = R
free-bet value = R × r_r^WR

where r_r is the reward game's RTP and WR is the wagering requirement (how many times the bonus must be re-bet). A £1 free bet at 96% RTP with 1× wagering is worth 96p; at 3× it's worth ~88p.

The verdict

The promo is worth it when the reward beats the stake cost:

session EV = reward value − stake cost

Positive EV means the offer pays you to play. Equivalently, your session RTP — everything returned divided by everything staked — climbs above 100%.

Model simplifications: it ignores min-odds rules, game weighting toward wagering, max-win caps, variance and risk of busting a free bet before clearing. Treat it as an upper-bound sanity check, not a guarantee.